The math vindicates the boring life.
Run your real numbers against your boldest fantasy. A 30-year Monte Carlo. Base rates, not vibes.
No account. No email. No feed. Just the math.
Localized in English, Русский, Español, 中文.
The numbers behind the noise.
Four things. Not just money.
The simulator tracks the four things FOMO actually costs you — not just the bank statement.
Net Worth
Median line + 10th–90th band at Year 30, in inflation-adjusted local currency. The boring line almost always ends above the bold one.
Damodaran 2023; S&P TR; Vanguard 2024.
Life Satisfaction
A 1–10 self-reported scale modeled on longitudinal happiness studies (HRS, SOEP, CFPS).
Blanchflower & Oswald 2004; HRS 2022.
Relationship Stability
Probability still partnered, adjusted for the divorce uplift from financial stress, relocation, and entrepreneurship.
Hans Steiner 1999; CDC BRFSS 2020.
Health Score
A composite proxy: stress-driven biomarkers decline faster in the bold-path simulation's downside runs.
CDC BRFSS 2019; HRS biomarker panel.
Based on peer-reviewed base rates, not vibes.
How the math works. In three steps.
You tell the truth.
Age, income, savings, country, and the bold move you're flirting with. No sign-up. The page doesn't phone home.
We sample 10,000 lives.
Two parallel 30-year runs — one sage, one terracotta — each path a coin-flip of luck, talent, and timing.
You see the median, the bands, and the verdict.
The verdict card tells you whether the bold move was worth it, in your currency, with your base rate.
No recommendations to buy. No newsletter. The output is the product.
Run your own 30-year Monte Carlo.
Five inputs. One button. The math vindicates — or doesn't — your current path.
Why this number?
The simulator uses 1,500 Monte Carlo paths per scenario. Each path samples a 30-year sequence of returns, income shocks, and life events using the country-specific real return (3.5%–5.5%) and the bold-move success rates below. The bands are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes — i.e. the realistic spread, not the bull-case fantasy.
Base rates used: SEC retail-trader study (88% Y1 loss); AngelList 2023 founder outcomes (65% earn less than pre-startup salary at year 3); Chainalysis memecoin aggregate (median −67% in 18mo); Course Report 2024 bootcamp placement (31% in field at 24mo); US Census migration data (44% SF/NYC transplants return within 3 years); HRS, SOEP, and CFPS longitudinal satisfaction panels; CDC BRFSS health composites.
The base rates the news never shows you.
These aren't the people who go viral. These are the ones who don't.
| Bold move | Median outcome | % who beat steady compounding ↑ | % who regret it within 5 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day trading (all-in) | −72% in year 1 (SEC / MSCI) | 4% | 78% |
| Memecoin portfolio | −67% within 18 months (Chainalysis) | 6% | 84% |
| Angel-style startup | $0 revenue at year 3 (AngelList 2023) | 8% | 41% |
| Move to SF / NYC for tech | −$48k net, 44% return home (Census) | 18% | 36% |
| AI / ML bootcamp pivot | $52k median at year 2 (Course Report) | 22% | 31% |
You don't need to do anything. You just needed the number.
Return to your life. With the math.
The Quiet Compounder. No feed. No updates. No team. The output is the product. Bookmark this page — you'll want it next quarter.